Folks this is my first blog, and I chose a rather political subject. Maybe that is part of my genes coming out - but that is a story to be told on another day. The meat is that if this is a childish blog let me know - would help me improve.
Coming back to the subject of Obama's visit - yes I guess there is always scope for some level of cynicism, but I guess his visit being followed by the terrible election results which he got, may have some positives for India in the end.
If we go by the past, i.e. when he took over, and we use history as the context which would possibly guide the future - then I would be rather circumspect. His political platform in US has being that we need to bring jobs back to US, and the only way to do that is keep this outsourcing business out of our country as much as possible. At least that is what I have read out from his histrionics in the past. Has this affected us - yes in some ways it has. The rejection rates for our visas has doubled or even trebled, the visa laws has become stringent, with the possibility of it becoming more and more stringent if this policy is pushed through. This has being one part. The second part is that agencies and organisation which depend on US Government for running their show, has become very circumspect in handing over contracts to Indian companies. Thirdly, because of such policies, I do not think that US economy has done really well, and this has impacted the US dollar rates, and Indian companies whose profitability sometimes depends on how strong the dollar is, has become impacted.
But does it mean that we have done badly? I do not think so (I am just blogging and that too not so seriously, so I would not be able to bring out lot of facts and figures specially when it is past midnight by an IST watch)- last couple of quarters we are again back into our double digit growth path (I mean Indian IT majors) and some part of it is due to US being the growth engine again (though not like the olden days). But definitely some amount of momentum is back from the US. Is this not contradictory? I guess not - there is a simple reason behind this - most of the US private organisations do understand, it is going to be very difficult to be cost effective if we give more US jobs, at least the ways things stand now, and so outsourcing is possibly the only model which will bring cost efficiencies. So outsourcing, has increased rather than decreased, and possibly it has also gone up higher in the value chain.
Coming back to the future - what will Obama do in his visit to India - I am sure lot has being written, but this is the place where I air my views :) -- I guess post his political setbacks in his own country, he would be smart enough to realize that his policies has not really worked, specially the economic ones has being nothing short of blunders. So it is possibly a good time to reverse some of it - and no better place than India - why so? Couple of reasons, the Indian Asian community in US is becoming a more and more stronger force as days go by, so they should be brought to Obama's side and not against him. This will help in swinging some votes, and also possibly getting in something more into his election coffers (which he will need more than before). Many of the Asian Business community in US have got business ties with India, and thus it would be beneficial to use this opportunity to provide them with some bounties which would help in swinging his anti India image. Secondly, there is a belief that India can become a strong export base for US, bringing in US labels, US brands etc in a bigger way, again higher up in the value chain than Coca Cola. Here again we Indians want to gratify the US, and possibly he would try and arm twist the Indian government to bring down some of the trade barriers in areas like pharma etc. where US can push some of the stuff specially the high priced stuff in the name of patent protection. Again mind it - this is no charity to India, but rather recognising the growing buying power of Indian population, and trying to get a hefty part of that pie by hook or by crook (I always believe in the crook part more, because that always makes more business sense). Indian enterprise in US has being a great source of innovation, so he wants to maintain that tide, so that these Indians and their progeny continue to find US much more attractive place to stay, and continue in their tradition of innovation, and thus bring in money to the US coffers.
Thus my view is that Mr. President would use this opportunity to at least try and change his image of being anti India, in terms of bounties which would be announced in the course of this visit. But I would be still circumspect, because how much of these bounties would bring in real benefit to us as a country would be still remain to be seen. I do not think US policies have really being helpful or supportive to us as a country, specifically in one very important area, which is our territorial integrity. US foreign policy has being rather kind to Pakistan (reasons very well known), and though there has being a lot of posturing in the recent past about being tough with Pakistan, in reality that has not really happened, and thus we have reaped no benefit on that front. Examples are galore, thus I would not waste time in quoting them. Even China finds itself rather fortunate on this front. Though China is a 'Communist regime' it definitely finds more favour with US, than India does. Reasons again are there in plenty, but I guess currently the strongest reason is economic rather than political. Thus again we find ourselves compromised, again on the political front, and China continues to be our strongest threat (much more than Pakistan) to our territorial integrity. Thus whatever very positive policy announcements are made during Indian Visit, finally they may not lead to anything so substantial for us as an Economy, specifically looking at the short to medium term.
So to summarize I would continue to be cynic on this subject, and would be circumspect about the benefits for India arising out of this Historic Visit
